You've Been Warned

Surgeon General Warning + Culture Change = New Relationship with Alcohol in American Society

The U.S. Surgeon General has released a report identifying "scientific evidence for the causal link between alcohol consumption and increased risk for at least seven different types of cancer".

This report is getting a lot of attention.

As it should.

Besides increased risks of cancer, alcohol consumption has enormous effects on individuals, families, and society.

According the CDC, excessive alcohol consumption cost the U.S. approximately $249 billion. 2010 was the most recent estimate, so that amount is likely higher. Most of the cost is due to lost productivity and labor (72%). Property damage and criminal justice accounts for 17% of the cost. And 11% was due to healthcare for alcohol-related injuries.

Anyone who has had a friend or family member that drinks too much or carelessly has felt the economic effects of that behavior.

But we’re in a transitional time in terms of our relationship with alcohol.

Raise your hand if you’ve tried a mocktail or non-alcoholic drink or saw an ad for one or saw anything related to being sober curious in the last year.

Keep your hand up if you’ve heard about Gen Z’s moment without alcohol.

According to Gallup, 10% fewer 18-34 year olds report using alcohol from 20 years ago.

This is a significant shift — despite more millennials, Gen X, and Boomers saying they consume alcohol.

And this shift has sprouted a booming non-alcoholic beverage category. From Forbes:

• Production volumes are expected to grow by 25% between 2022 and 2026.

• Anheuser-Busch InBev expects its no and low-alcohol beers to account for one fifth of sales by 2025.

• Value of non-alcoholic beverages surpassed $11 billion in 2022.

• 82% of non-alcoholic drinkers also consume alcohol.

This last statistic is core to this week’s equation.

The younger generation is seeking alternatives to enhance their social experiences. But they are not completely giving up alcohol.

Having a well-crafted non-alcoholic drink from a studied mixologist is fun and adventurous — and it doesn’t come with the headache or morning regret.

Gen Z has taken a closer look at what they consume on a regular basis. They want healthier options — less toxins.

Despite the issues of social cohesion and still too much isolation caused by social media and smart phones (the Surgeon General has warned about this too), beverages are still a cause of connection and celebration — they just don’t need to be alcoholic.

The large producers of alcohol are adjusting. But they are always going to produce alcohol, and alcohol is not going away any time soon.

Alcohol will remain a social and cultural keystone. It will still bring people together in wonderful ways. And it will still have its downsides. People will still become addicted and do terrible things while intoxicated.

Here’s where I point you to a great resource I was part of in collaboration with Diageo and Responsibility.org.

But there is another phenomenon impacting people’s relationship to alcohol — GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic. These GLP-1 drugs were originally designed for diabetes, but an immediate side effect was weight loss. Once that word got out, people that could afford GLP-1’s started taking the drug to cut pounds. What those people learned was in addition to the appetite being changed, they no longer had a taste for alcohol.

And last November, JAMA published findings that GLP-1’s reduced binge drinking by 50% and a 40% reduction in overdoses for those also with opioid addiction.

Back to the Surgeon General report … it is undoubtedly important and will be consequential. While this report seems to have come from out of nowhere, the evidence supporting increased risk and strong causal relationships to cancer has been accumulating over the last 20 years.

What happens from this report is unknown. Legislation and regulation in this political climate is not going to happen. But social change that was already happening may get a boost — dampening legislative and regulatory efforts.

For some portion of the population, news like this will absolutely sway behavior.

I am most curious to know how information like this might sway people who are heavy drinkers and/or afflicted with an alcohol addiction.

The 1964 Surgeon General report on smoking and the warning labels that followed dramatically cut rates of smoking from 42% to 18%.

But having stood around many addiction support meetings in my life where the smoking was plentiful, the argument that "smoking will kill you" never went very far with people that were killing themselves with alcohol and other drugs. The retort was always, "one vice at a time".

Can messaging and warnings like the latest Surgeon General’s report prevent people from consuming in the first place, reduce use if they've increased, and/or keep people from returning to alcohol consumption if they once had a problem?

AND, how does this new evidence impact the current trends of Gen Z significantly reducing alcohol use (substituting NA options) and Millenials, Gex X, and Boomers tending to consume more alcohol?

Society’s relationship to alcohol is changing. That’s good.

Alcohol is not going anywhere. See cigarettes, cigars, etc.
And the companies that produce alcohol are going to be just fine — despite stocks dropping 3-6% following the S.G. report.

But maybe, just maybe, as the relationship with alcohol changes, so too might the negative consequences and turmoil that often follows.

I’m not one that says alcohol shouldn’t be allowed. Most people consume alcohol with no problem at all. What we should have is sound information to make clear and educated decisions about what we are sold and what we choose to consume.

If society changes toward less alcohol, so be it. Markets and products will adjust. And, unfortunately, some other substance or vice will come along that captures us humans in its grips.